Comparing GHG Emission Scenarios using Simulation

A recent article in the New York Times used some nifty graphics to illustrate how far off course the world remains from preventing drastic global warming – nearly two years after the Paris climate agreement and as nearly 200 countries are meeting right now in Bonn to flesh out the next level of details. The data came from the Climate Action Tracker, which tracks global progress towards holding temperature increases to under 2 deg C. Their GHG emissions scenario data for 2016 is readily available here in a spreadsheet, which prompted me to adapt their data and use ClimateSim to simulate the scenarios.

The scenarios include: current policy projections (based on current policies that are in place around the world), Paris pledges (unconditional pledges or promises made by governments, including the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions), 2C efforts (emission reduction efforts to keep warming under 2 deg C), and 1.5C efforts (emission reduction efforts to keep the warming under 1.5 deg C). 

I am posting just the final temperature results in the accompanying chart. Please see my little tutorial for further details/results and how you can try running your own simulations.